Average Nfl Over Under
To do the NFL over under betting cold weather analysis, we created a basic NFL system that included both regular season and postseason games. We next added Bet Labs’ Temperature Filter to isolate only NFL games where the game-time temperature was 32 degrees or below. The Kansas City Chiefs NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals are currently set at 12.5, and the Baltimore Ravens NFL OVER/UNDER regular-season win totals are currently set at 11.5. The San Francisco 49ers and Tampa Bay Buccaneers are next in line at 10.5. NFL’s Next Gen Stats captures real time location data, speed and acceleration for every player, every play on every inch of the field. Discover Next Gen Stats News, Charts, and Statistics.
.In conclusion the average size of an NFL player is about 6’2” 245 lbs.This is a solid goal for any kid trying to make it to the NFL.If a kid cannot become 6’2” then they can look at the average height and weight of other positions. Many Wide Receivers, Running Backs, and Defensive Backs are below this average. Starting in 1980, every NFL point spread, OVER/UNDER result and score is stored here in our databank. From 1990 onward, every box score and stat joined the archive to forge this mammoth database. From 1990 onward, every box score and stat joined the archive to forge this mammoth database.
The 2018 NFL season is set to begin Thursday night. That leaves just a couple of days for sportsbooks to make final adjustments to their season win totals (over/unders) and fans to make final decisions about which teams they believe will go over or under those opening lines.
The New England Patriots' over/under is 11 wins, putting them atop the win-total board before start of the season for the third consecutive year and ninth time since 2004; they've been alone at the top on five of those occasions. The Buffalo Bills project to win 5.5 games -- the fewest in the NFL -- producing one of tightest ranges this century between the teams with the highest and lowest over/unders.
But does any of this really matter? I looked back at NFL teams' over/unders, regular-season wins and over/under results since 2002, which was the start of the 32-team era. I paid special attention to three topics: (1) specific over/under levels; (2) specific franchises; and (3) teams' projected improvement or decline from one season to the next.
Some of the findings were as expected. The Patriots, Indianapolis Colts and Philadelphia Eagles have frequently gone over their win totals, for example, while the Cleveland Browns, Chicago Bears, Jacksonville Jaguars, Los Angeles Rams and Oakland Raiders have often gone under theirs. Other trends required a little more digging.
Win totals for the 2018 season are from Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, as of Sept. 3. Historical win totals are sourced from Sports Odds History.
Teams projected to be below average trend over. Teams projected to be average or a little above trend under.
First, it's important to keep in mind that over/unders, like preseason Super Bowl odds, are highly correlated (0.82) with teams' wins in the previous season -- and only modestly correlated (0.45) with how teams ultimately perform in the season that's being projected. In that way, over/unders are essentially adjusted versions of the prior season's standings, often reflecting some upward or downward movement toward eight wins, the NFL average.
Over Under Nfl Teams
Teams loosely perform as their over/unders suggest they might, but we otherwise can't pin down what a team's real number of victories will be based on its over/under (and why watch or wager if you could?)
There are nevertheless some subtle trends lurking in the midst of all this data -- particularly when we look at specific over/under levels. Since 2002, NFL teams handicapped to earn six to 7.5 wins have gone over 85 times (51.5 percent), under 72 times (43.6 percent) and pushed eight times (4.8 percent). Most of that trend toward the over came by way of teams projected to win six or 6.5 games, which this season includes the Browns (six), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6.5), Arizona Cardinals (six), Miami Dolphins (6.5) and New York Jets (six).
Meanwhile, teams projected to win eight to 10.5 wins have done the opposite -- they've gone over 124 times (44.3 percent), under 142 times (50.7 percent) and pushed 14 times (5 percent). In short, teams expected to be a little below average have trended slightly over, while teams expected to be average or a little above that mark have trended slightly under. On balance, reversion toward the NFL's eight-win average has won out.
Sample sizes get smaller and results get muddier at the extremes, but Patriots fans might like to know that 11 of the 18 teams (61.1 percent) handicapped at 11 or 11.5 wins since 2002 -- as New England is this season -- have gone over, including the Pats themselves on three of five occasions. Those same Pats fans should hope that doesn't mean they're due to go the other way in 2018.
Some teams are more consistent than others.
Recent franchise history also bodes well for the Patriots. In the past 16 NFL seasons, New England has gone over its win total 12 times and pushed once. Sportsbooks forecasted some year-over-year decline for the Pats in 14 of those seasons, but Tom Brady, Bill Belichick & Co. have rewarded over bettors time and time again. The shoe will eventually drop, I suppose, but if it's after Brady retires, it will likely be baked into the line.
The Colts and Eagles each hit the over 11 times since 2002, second-best behind the Pats. But the two teams have met very different fates of late. The Colts have gone under their total for three consecutive seasons, while the Eagles went over theirs in four of the past five seasons (they also won Super Bowl LII, of course). The Houston Texans, Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers have each gone over 10 times, but they've done so relative to very different over/under averages: 7.6 for Houston, 8.8 for Denver and 9.5 for Pittsburgh.
The Browns, as you might expect, have done almost the exact opposite of the Patriots. Cleveland's over/unders suggested that the team would improve in 13 of the past 16 seasons, if only to a modest average of about six wins. The Browns instead averaged fewer than five wins, going under their win total 12 times in 16 years.
Teams projected to improve trend over. Teams projected to decline trend under.
Despite winning zero games last season, Cleveland has seen its win total bet up to six games in 2018, and the team is attracting attention in Las Vegas and on HBO's 'Hard Knocks.' That six-win difference represents the highest projected year-over-year win increase before the start of a season since at least 2002 -- admittedly an easier feat when coming off a base of zero.
So how do NFL teams do when their over/unders suggest they'll win more games in the upcoming season than they won during the previous season -- that is, when they're expected to improve like the Browns are? And how do teams do when they're expected to decline, like this season's Vikings (13 wins in 2017, O/U 10 in 2018) and Bills (nine wins in 2017, O/U 5.5 in 2018)?
Since 2002, teams expected to improve by at least one victory from the previous season have gone over their win total 101 times (53.4 percent), under 79 times (41.8 percent) and pushed nine times (4.8 percent). Most, in other words, improved by more games than their over/unders implied they would. There is considerable overlap between this group and the 'below average' win-total teams we looked at earlier, so it makes sense that both trend toward the over.
Meanwhile, teams projected to decline by at least one win have basically done the opposite: They've gone over 71 times (40.1 percent), under 95 times (53.7 percent) and pushed 11 times (6.2 percent). This group has a great deal of overlap with the 'above average' win-total teams we reviewed earlier, and it follows that both trend toward the under.
But remember: While these subtle trends might make for good podcast conversation, they'll rarely be enough to overcome the heavy vigs and careful pricing that sportsbooks attach to win-total wagers. Most of this season's over/unders carry negative odds (-110 to -170), and those bets have an average vig of over 30 percent (-131). Keep that pricing in mind as you peruse the board and ponder whether the Browns will finally rise or the Patriots will finally fall.
Greg Guglielmo is a freelance writer based in New York. His work appears on FiveThirtyEight and his blog, ELDORADO. You can find him on Twitter @eldo_co.
Introduction
This page assumes the reader already has a good grasp of sports betting terminology. If this is not the case, I recommend reading my general page on sports betting first.
Nfl Week One Over Under
Unless otherwise stated, the source of this data is every NFL game played from the 2006 season through and including week 1 of the 2018 season. This is a total of 3,220 games. The data is available for free at Australia Sports Betting.
Point Spread Bets
I admit 'point spread bet' is not a common term in sports betting, but I'm trying to change that. What I call a point spread bet is a basic bet against the point spread. Many people call this a 'straight bet' but this term can also be used, and is printed on tickets for, money liney bets, total bets, and any other bet involving just one game. So I invite the rest of the world to adopt this term.
The following table shows the probability of winning, losing, and pushing according by various breakdowns.
Point Spread Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| All home | 1,484 | 1,680 | 56 | 46.90% | 1.26% | -2.46 | -10.28% |
| All away | 1,680 | 1,484 | 56 | 53.10% | 1.26% | 2.46 | 1.34% |
| All favorite | 1,488 | 1,617 | 56 | 47.92% | 1.27% | -1.64 | -8.36% |
| All underdog | 1,617 | 1,488 | 56 | 52.08% | 1.27% | 1.64 | -0.57% |
| Home underdog | 492 | 520 | 20 | 48.62% | 2.22% | -0.62 | -7.05% |
| Home favorite | 968 | 1,125 | 36 | 46.25% | 1.55% | -2.43 | -11.51% |
| Away underdog | 1,125 | 968 | 36 | 53.75% | 1.55% | 2.43 | 2.57% |
| Away favorite | 520 | 492 | 20 | 51.38% | 2.22% | 0.62 | -1.87% |
| Home pick | 24 | 35 | 0 | 40.68% | 9.21% | -1.01 | -22.34% |
| Away pick | 35 | 24 | 0 | 59.32% | 9.21% | 1.01 | 13.25% |
| All | 3,164 | 3,164 | 112 | 50.00% | 0.89% | 0.00 | -4.47% |
Explanation of column headings:
- Bet: Type of bet
- Wins: Number of wins against point spread
- Losses: Number of losses against point spread
- Pushes: Number of pushes against point spread
- Win Rate: Ratio of wins to bets resolved
- Std. Dev.: One standard deviation in the mean of the win rate, assuming every bet had a theoretical chance of winning of 50%.
- N.S.D: Number of standard deviations that the actual results differ from an expected win rate of 50%.
- Return: Ratio of money won (lost = negative) to money bet, assuming laying 11 to win 10.
Over/Under Bets
The following table shows the results of under and over bets. It shows both had nearly a 50% chance of winning. In face, over 3,220 games the over won just two more times than the under. I thought under bets would have performed better, but I've been wrong before.
Under and Over Bets in the NFL
| Bet | Wins | Losses | Pushes | Win Rate | Std. Dev. | N.S.D. | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over | 1,586 | 1,576 | 58 | 50.16% | 1.26% | 0.13 | -4.17% |
| Under | 1,576 | 1,586 | 58 | 49.84% | 1.26% | -0.13 | -4.76% |
Money Lines
The following brief table shows the result of money line bets.
Money Line Bets in the NFL
The next table shows the actual and estimated probability of winning for underdogs of 1 to 14.5 points. Obviously, the probability of the favorite winning would be 100% less the probability of the underdog winning. The estimated probability of winning uses logistic regression to smooth out the ups and downs.
Probability of Winning by Point Spread in the NFL
| Spread | Games | Wins | Actual Probability | Estimated Probability | Fair Line |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 139 | 69 | 49.6% | 46.4% | 115 |
| 1.5 | 88 | 43 | 48.9% | 44.6% | 124 |
| 2 | 126 | 51 | 40.5% | 42.9% | 133 |
| 2.5 | 224 | 98 | 43.8% | 41.1% | 143 |
| 3 | 517 | 235 | 45.5% | 39.4% | 154 |
| 3.5 | 279 | 107 | 38.4% | 37.7% | 165 |
| 4 | 157 | 59 | 37.6% | 36.1% | 177 |
| 4.5 | 128 | 47 | 36.7% | 34.4% | 191 |
| 5 | 89 | 23 | 25.8% | 32.8% | 205 |
| 5.5 | 118 | 38 | 32.2% | 31.3% | 220 |
| 6 | 133 | 45 | 33.8% | 29.7% | 236 |
| 6.5 | 147 | 42 | 28.6% | 28.3% | 254 |
| 7 | 220 | 51 | 23.2% | 26.8% | 273 |
| 7.5 | 146 | 36 | 24.7% | 25.5% | 293 |
| 8 | 65 | 14 | 21.5% | 24.1% | 315 |
| 8.5 | 52 | 16 | 30.8% | 22.8% | 338 |
| 9 | 58 | 13 | 22.4% | 21.6% | 363 |
| 9.5 | 48 | 6 | 12.5% | 20.4% | 390 |
| 10 | 104 | 19 | 18.3% | 19.3% | 419 |
| 10.5 | 61 | 15 | 24.6% | 18.2% | 450 |
| 11 | 41 | 4 | 9.8% | 17.1% | 483 |
| 11.5 | 22 | 4 | 18.2% | 16.1% | 519 |
| 12 | 13 | 3 | 23.1% | 15.2% | 558 |
| 12.5 | 25 | 4 | 16.0% | 14.3% | 599 |
| 13 | 34 | 6 | 17.6% | 13.4% | 644 |
| 13.5 | 36 | 4 | 11.1% | 12.6% | 692 |
| 14 | 36 | 3 | 8.3% | 11.9% | 743 |
| 14.5 | 12 | 1 | 8.3% | 11.1% | 798 |
If you want to estimate the probability of winning of an underdog of more than 14.5 points, the formula is e^(-0.14324*s)/(1+e^(-0.14324*s)), where s is the point spread. To convert any probability under 50% to a fair money line, the formula is 100*(1-p)/p, where p is the probability of winning. To convert any probability over 50% to a fair money line, the formula is -100*p/(1-p).
Parlays
Here is my quick advice on parlays:
- If you bet off the board, either do a pick-3 or mix in one leg that isn't at the standard -110 odds, to get off the lousy parlay odds table, and force a fair calculation.
- On parlay cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the 'off the board' point spread.
I have much more information about parlays in my page on Parlay Bets in the NFL.
Teasers
Here is my quick advice on teasers:
- If you bet off the board, the best odds are at Jerry's Nugget.
- Try to cross the 3- and 7-point margin of victories with the extra points.
- Teaser cards are a sucker bet.
- If you must bet a teaser card, I recommend the the Ties Win Teaser Card at any Caesars sports book.
- On teaser cards, try to capture as many points as you can compared to the 'off the board' point spread.
Nfl Line And Over Under
I have lots more information about teasers in my page on Teaser Bets in the NFL.
Buying Half a Point off the Spread
Sometimes a sports book will let you buy a half point off the spread for total. For example, moving a point spread from +10 to +10.5. The price for this is laying an extra cents, in most cases laying 120 instead of 110. However, rarely will a sports book let the player buy onto point spreads of 3 or 7, for example moving from +2.5 to +3, because 3 and 7 are frequent margin of victories (MOV) in the NFL. To be specific, the margin of victory is three 14.5% of the time, and seven 9.2%, as the following table shows.
Margin of Victory in the NFL
Nfl Picks Over And Under
| MOV | Probability |
|---|---|
| 0 | 0.2% |
| 1 | 3.7% |
| 2 | 3.8% |
| 3 | 14.5% |
| 4 | 5.2% |
| 5 | 3.4% |
| 6 | 6.2% |
| 7 | 9.2% |
| 8 | 3.6% |
| 9 | 1.7% |
| 10 | 5.6% |
| 11 | 2.5% |
| 12 | 1.5% |
| 13 | 2.9% |
| 14 | 4.8% |
| 15 | 1.5% |
| 16 | 2.1% |
| 17 | 3.1% |
| 18 | 2.3% |
| 19 | 1.1% |
| 20 | 2.4% |
| 21 | 3.2% |
| 22+ | 15.7% |
| Total | 100.0% |
The following table shows the fair price to pay for most spreads and totals. For example, moving the spread from +2.5 to +3, +3 to +3.5, -3.5 to -3, or -3 to -2.5, would be buying the 3. In these cases if the favorite won by 3, or the underdog lost by 3, then it would turn a push into a win, or a loss into a push. The table shows the fair price to pay for extra half point, to equal the expected loss of 4.54% laying 11 to win 10. The bottom line is you should definitely buy the half point off of three, if you can, and it is marginally good off of seven. Anything else and it is a bad value.
Buying a Half Point Off the Spread
Buying Half a Point off the Total
The overall fair number of basis points to pay for a half point off the total is 8.12. In other words, you should be indifferent to laying 11 to win 10 and laying 118.12 to win 10 with an extra half point. The following table shows my suggested fair price to pay to capture totals from 30 to 60. By 'capture' I mean turn a push into a win or a loss into a push. If you have to lay 10 basis points for the half point, my table shows that it is never a good value, although sometimes it is close. An explanation of the column headings follows the table.
Buying a Half Point off the Over/Under in the NFL
| Total Points | Num. in Sample | Probability | Fair Price |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30 | 89 | 0.027640 | 6.58 |
| 31 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 32 | 42 | 0.013043 | 3.06 |
| 33 | 102 | 0.031677 | 7.58 |
| 34 | 83 | 0.025776 | 6.13 |
| 35 | 52 | 0.016149 | 3.80 |
| 36 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 37 | 120 | 0.037267 | 8.98 |
| 38 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 39 | 62 | 0.019255 | 4.54 |
| 40 | 105 | 0.032609 | 7.81 |
| 41 | 121 | 0.037578 | 9.05 |
| 42 | 48 | 0.014907 | 3.50 |
| 43 | 126 | 0.039130 | 9.45 |
| 44 | 123 | 0.038199 | 9.21 |
| 45 | 82 | 0.025466 | 6.05 |
| 46 | 64 | 0.019876 | 4.69 |
| 47 | 113 | 0.035093 | 8.43 |
| 48 | 98 | 0.030435 | 7.27 |
| 49 | 61 | 0.018944 | 4.47 |
| 50 | 81 | 0.025155 | 5.98 |
| 51 | 119 | 0.036957 | 8.90 |
| 52 | 74 | 0.022981 | 5.45 |
| 53 | 51 | 0.015839 | 3.72 |
| 54 | 66 | 0.020497 | 4.84 |
| 55 | 85 | 0.026398 | 6.28 |
| 56 | 25 | 0.007764 | 1.81 |
| 57 | 63 | 0.019565 | 4.62 |
| 58 | 58 | 0.018012 | 4.24 |
| 59 | 40 | 0.012422 | 2.91 |
| 60 | 18 | 0.005590 | 1.30 |
Key to column headings:
- Total Points = Total point scored in game
- Num. in Sample = Number of times this total appeared in a sample of 3,220 games.
- Fair Price = My fair number of basis points to pay to capture this number (after a lot of math)
My page on alternate point spreads shows what it is worth to buy or sell up to seven points off the spread. That page has not been updated with the latest data yet.
Example
Assume the over/under on a game is exactly 43 points. My table shows the fair number of basis points to pay to capture the 43 is 9.45. This means you should be indifferent to laying 110 on the under 43 or over 43 to laying 119.45 on the under 43.5 or over 42.5.
Internal Links
- Alternate point spread calculator.
- Parlay calculator — What a parlay pay composed of events of miscellaneous odds should pay.
- Proposition bet calculator — Fair line for lots of common prop bets, given the point spread and total.
- NFL Average Scores per Game 2000-2020 — Historical scoring data from 2000 to 2020.
- Super Bowl proposition bets — Repository of Super Bowl proposition bet sheets from Las Vegas
Written by: Michael Shackleford